Auction vs Buy It Now Calculator 2026: eBay Expected Profit and Floor Check
Decide whether to run an eBay auction or fixed-price listing by comparing expected profit, low-close risk, reserve cost, fee basis, and time cost.
Scenario presets
Fixed-price path
Auction range from sold comps
Costs and floor
Default fee rate is a plain editable estimate. Official eBay final value fees are category/account specific and can include item price, shipping, tax, and fixed order fees.
eBay's current reserve price upgrade fee is $5 or 7.5% of the reserve price, capped at $250. Enter the live fee shown in the listing flow before publishing.
Use Buy It Now
List fixed price with Best Offer, then revisit if watchers and offers stay weak.
Confidence: medium
Format comparison
| Path | Gross price | Fees | Profit if sold | Probability | Expected profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy It NowBest | $100.00 | -$14.00 | $48.00 | 68% | $22.14 |
| Auction mean | $90.00 | -$12.64 | $39.36 | 72% | $24.84 |
Low case
$60.00
$13.44 net after estimated costs
Most likely
$85.00
$35.04 net after estimated costs
High case
$125.00
$69.60 net after estimated costs
Official rule checks
Checked 2026-08-08. eBay auctions sell to the highest bidder at close, reserve price is an optional fee-based upgrade, and fee schedules vary by category and order basis. Use this calculator for format decision support, then verify the final category fee and optional upgrade costs inside the listing flow.
When auction is actually the right job
Auction is a price-discovery tool for items with real bidder depth: scarce collectibles, volatile comps, limited releases, hard-to-find parts, and demand that concentrates around a closing time.
Buy It Now is a price-control tool for normal resale inventory. If recent sold comps are tight and buyers can choose from many substitutes, a fixed price plus offers usually protects profit better than hoping the auction finds a second bidder.
Inputs to gather before trusting the output
Sold comp range
Build low, likely, and high close values from recent solds after removing condition mismatches.
Bidder depth
Use watchers, active listings, completed auction volume, and category heat to set auction probability.
Floor profit
Enter the lowest net profit you would be comfortable accepting if the auction closes weak.
Listing fee reality
Reserve and optional upgrades can erase the benefit of auctioning low-margin items.
Risk prevented
- Dream-high anchoring: the model uses low, likely, and high outcomes instead of letting one outlier close drive the decision.
- Floor misses: a weak auction close can be mathematically positive but still below the seller's required net profit.
- Reserve blind spots: optional reserve costs are treated as auction costs, not ignored.
- Fee-basis mistakes: buyer shipping and tax can affect eBay fee basis, so they have explicit inputs.
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